Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
PhD Student in Sports Management, Department of Physical Education and Sport Science, Shoushtar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shoushtar, Iran
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Sport Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran(Corresponding author) salah.naghshbandi@yahoo.com
3
: Assistant Professor in Sports Management, Department of Physical Education and Sport Science, Shoushtar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shoushtar, Iran
4
Associate Professor of Sport Management, Sport Sciences Faculty, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
10.22080/jsmb.2023.21683.3619
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to develop scenarios for public sports in Iran on the horizon of 1404. This research has a qualitative, descriptive and exploratory nature. The statistical population of this study consisted of sports experts. Relying on the correction method of 15 experts to participate in 3 research steps (first step - determining the propulsion and effective forces, the second step - examining the interaction of the identified propulsion, the third step - selecting the scenario) Were. The data collection tool in all 3 steps of the research was a questionnaire. Formal validity was used to evaluate the content validity and retest method (0.752) was used to assess the reliability of the questionnaire. Structural analysis approach and interaction balance analysis approach were used to perform the analyzes. The findings of this study showed that the scattering pattern of drivers affecting the future of grassroots sports is unstable. Of the 42 variables studied, 8 key variables affecting the future of grassroots sports were identified, and finally 17 possible scenarios with zero incompatibility rate were developed in the two main scenarios of current status and critical future. According to these scenarios, it is predicted that the situation of public sports in Iran on the horizon of 1404 will continue as before and in this process will experience a critical situation more than before.
Keywords
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